Winter sets in across country, but warmer conditions forecast amid El Niño

Winter is gradually setting in across the country, with temperatures falling in several regions, particularly in the north and north-west. Chilly mornings, cool breezes and occasional fog signal the approaching seasonal change.

Meteorologists expect the chill to intensify towards the end of November, although this winter is likely to be relatively warmer than normal, with daytime and nighttime temperatures remaining slightly above long-term averages.

According to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department’s (BMD) three-month forecast, the country could experience four to six cold waves between November and January, including two to three severe ones.

Speaking to the Daily Sun, BMD Senior Meteorologist Dr Muhammad Abul Kalam Mallik said temperatures had started declining in Rajshahi, Rangpur, Sylhet and the northern parts of Khulna division, including Jashore, Kushtia and Satkhira.

“The arrival of winter will gradually become more noticeable towards the end of November,” he said, adding that temperatures had already started falling slightly in these regions.

Although winter officially extends from 1 December to the end of February, temperatures can decline earlier in northern districts such as 

Tetulia, where readings sometimes fall to 15-16 degrees Celsius before the season begins.

Tetulia recorded the country’s lowest temperature at 15.2 degrees Celsius in 24 hours to 6pm on Tuesday, while the minimum temperature in Dhaka was recorded at 21.7 degrees Celsius, according to the BMD.

Dr Mallik said fog could develop during early-morning and late-night hours towards the end of autumn and the beginning of Agrahayan. Rural farmers are already concerned about the possible effects of prolonged fog and falling temperatures on standing crops, particularly in vulnerable areas.

He attributed the relatively warmer seasonal outlook partly to prevailing El Niño conditions, which are influencing weather patterns across South Asia.

“As El Niño remains active, we expect relatively warmer conditions across South Asia, including Bangladesh. Although cold waves may occur, their duration and intensity are likely to remain limited,” he said.

The BMD forecast says one or two mild cold waves may occur in December, while January could see moderate cold spells and one or two severe cold waves. During severe cold waves, temperatures could fall to 4-6 degrees Celsius, particularly in northern and western regions. During mild cold waves, temperatures in parts of Rajshahi, Rangpur and Khulna divisions may drop to 8-10 degrees Celsius.

Dr Mallik said prolonged or extremely severe cold spells were unlikely, although occasional intense spells could occur. Temperatures were not expected to fall below 4 degrees Celsius. The BMD also warned that moderate to dense fog could develop over river basins and other parts of the country from late night to morning in the coming months.

Overall, Bangladesh is heading towards winter, but the season may be less harsh than in some previous years, with occasional cold spells, foggy mornings and relatively warmer daytime and nighttime conditions.