Timing of Adani power disruption raises questions amid Dhaka-Delhi tensions

Questions have been raised over the timing of a power disruption at Adani Power’s Godda plant in India’s Jharkhand, which came a day after Bangladesh announced that Prime Minister Tarique Rahman would not visit India for the BRICS summit.

One of the two 800MW units of the 1,600MW Godda power plant reportedly shut down due to a technical problem, causing the plant’s output to fall below 750MW. The disruption came as Bangladesh was already facing a severe power shortage, with peak load shedding reportedly reaching 3,557MW.

The timing has prompted speculation over whether the disruption was merely the result of technical and fuel-related problems or whether power supply could become another source of pressure amid growing political tensions between Dhaka and New Delhi.

However, there is no publicly available evidence so far to suggest that the Indian government or Adani Power deliberately halted or reduced electricity supplies in response to Tarique Rahman’s decision not to visit India.

Bangladesh’s Foreign State Minister for Foreign Affairs Humaiun Kobir said on Thursday (10 Sept) that the prime minister would not travel to India. The announcement came after weeks of diplomatic communication between Dhaka and New Delhi over a possible visit by Tarique Rahman.

Tarique Rahman was also not scheduled to attend the outreach segment of the BRICS summit in New Delhi on 12 and 13 September. Dhaka has said the invitation was extended to him as the current chair of BIMSTEC, rather than as Bangladesh’s prime minister. It has also repeatedly said that an “appropriate environment” was needed for his first bilateral visit to India.

The power disruption came the following day.

Bangladesh’s power system had been under considerable pressure even before the Adani unit was shut down.

Gas, coal and liquid fuel shortages have prevented several power plants from operating at full capacity. Earlier this month, Adani Power said coal supplies to its Godda plant had been disrupted by congestion on India’s railway network and restrictions on coal loading.

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The company said it had informed the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) and was working with Indian Railways to address the problem.

According to reports on 11 September, the plant had generated more than 1,400MW the previous night before one of its units was shut down. Plant officials said a boiler-related problem had forced the unit to stop and that it could take around 48 hours to cool before repairs could be completed.

A BPDB member was quoted as saying that a problem had developed in a feed unit, causing overheating and forcing the unit to be shut down. It could take three to four days for the unit to return to full production, according to the official.

Adani Power’s explanation therefore points to fuel transportation problems followed by a technical fault, rather than a political decision.

A 25-year contractual obligation

Bangladesh signed the power purchase agreement with Adani Power in 2017. The Godda plant has a total capacity of 1,600MW, with two 800MW units, and was built primarily to supply electricity to Bangladesh.

The agreement was signed under the previous government and remains in force. Bangladesh continues to purchase electricity from the plant under the long-term contract.

This makes the contractual obligations of the supplier an important issue.

Whether Adani Power has specific obligations regarding fuel procurement, maintaining generation capacity and ensuring scheduled supplies depends on the terms of the power purchase agreement. Any assessment of a breach or failure to supply would therefore require examination of the relevant contractual provisions.

Energy experts have previously called for a review of various aspects of the Adani agreement. Any provision allowing renegotiation, compensation or termination in the event of prolonged supply disruption would similarly depend on the specific terms of the contract.

The issue, therefore, is not only why electricity generation has fallen, but also what safeguards were incorporated into the agreement and whether they are being applied.

What Adani says

On 2 September, Adani Power said coal supplies to the Godda plant had declined because of pressure on the railway network, loading restrictions at various locations and disruptions in coal transportation.

The company said it had notified BPDB about the matter and was working with Indian Railways.

After generation began recovering, however, one of the plant’s units was shut down because of the boiler-related problem.

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Adani blames rail congestion for lower power supply

A technical failure at a power plant is not unusual. The more important issue in a long-term cross-border electricity arrangement is how quickly the problem is resolved and what measures the supplier takes to minimise the impact on the importing country.

Timing fuels suspicion, but not proof

The timing of the disruption has nevertheless attracted attention because it followed months of diplomatic discussions over a possible visit by Tarique Rahman to India.

On 16 August, Bangladesh’s Foreign Ministry said public remarks by Sheikh Hasina from Delhi had disrupted the process surrounding the proposed visit and that an appropriate environment was needed before the prime minister travelled to India.

Discussions continued into September. On 5 September, State Minister Humaiun Kobir said there was no possibility of a visit by the prime minister to India before the United Nations General Assembly and that no date had been finalised.

On 10 September, Dhaka made it clear that Tarique Rahman would not attend the BRICS summit. The following day, news emerged that one of the Godda plant’s units had been shut down.

The proximity of the two events has naturally raised questions.

But suspicion and evidence are not the same thing.

There is, so far, no reliable evidence that the power disruption was politically motivated or linked to the prime minister’s decision not to visit India.

A strategic vulnerability

Bangladesh’s dependence on imported energy means disruptions at a major cross-border power plant can have significant consequences.

The country’s power system was already struggling because of shortages of gas, coal and liquid fuel. Reports on 11 September put overall generation at around 13,000MW to 14,000MW against demand of more than 16,000MW.

The Adani disruption therefore appears to have aggravated an existing crisis rather than caused it single-handedly.

Energy experts have long criticised aspects of the Adani agreement. Questions have also been raised about whether Bangladesh has become excessively dependent on a single cross-border source and whether the country has sufficient alternative generation and import capacity to absorb such disruptions.

The latest incident has brought those concerns back into focus.

Questions that need answers

The authorities and Adani Power should clarify several issues, including:

• What exactly caused the failure in the boiler or feed unit?
• When did repairs begin after the fault was detected?
• Can the remaining unit operate at maximum capacity while the other unit is offline?
• Why did coal supply disruptions persist for so long?
• What obligations does Adani Power have under the power purchase agreement when supplies are disrupted?
• What compensation or other contractual remedies are available to Bangladesh?
• What alternative measures has Adani Power offered to minimise the impact on Bangladesh?
• Are Indian authorities involved in resolving the supply disruption?
• Is there any connection between the disruption and the political tensions surrounding Tarique Rahman’s proposed India visit?

The last question is the most difficult to answer.

Electricity should not become a political tool

Whether Bangladesh’s prime minister visits India is a sovereign decision for Dhaka. Likewise, bilateral relations should be determined by national interests, while commercial agreements should operate according to their contractual terms and mutual obligations.

Bangladesh does not receive Adani’s electricity as aid. It pays for the electricity under a commercial agreement. Therefore, any prolonged disruption naturally raises questions about the rights and remedies available to Bangladesh under the contract.

A technical failure can happen at any power plant. But if such a failure causes a substantial shortfall in Bangladesh’s electricity supply, the country must examine whether its energy system has adequate safeguards and alternatives.

The immediate priority should be to establish the facts through contractual documents, generation data, technical reports and official explanations from Adani Power and the relevant authorities.

If the incident is purely technical, Adani Power should restore normal supply as quickly as possible and provide a clear technical explanation.

If, however, evidence emerges of political or commercial pressure being exerted through electricity supplies, that would go beyond a power-sector issue and raise serious concerns about Bangladesh’s economic security and sovereign decision-making.

For now, the facts establish a striking coincidence in timing—not a causal link.