A tough road ahead for government

Although the 12 February election marked a milestone in Bangladesh’s political history, the road ahead for the new government remains extremely challenging, according to a report by the International Crisis Group.

The report, titled “Bangladesh’s New Government Gets to Work,” was released early Thursday. It notes that while the government enjoys a strong public mandate, many Bangladeshis remain skeptical about the BNP’s ability to govern due to its past record. Failure to meet public expectations could trigger renewed instability.

The Brussels-based International Crisis Group said the BNP-led government should use the post-election window to push forward reforms in the economy, governance, and security sectors. Managing economic volatility stemming from the Iran conflict will be a major test.

The report also urged the government to avoid confrontation with opposition parties over reforms and to review cases filed against Awami League leaders and activists.

Election and Political Context

The report describes the February election as largely peaceful, with significant voter participation. It marked the end of nearly 18 months of interim rule following the fall of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina through a mass uprising.

Despite expectations of violence, voting was relatively calm, and power was transferred within five days. However, the new government now faces major challenges, including economic recovery, ensuring good governance, and navigating a complex international environment.

For many voters, the significance of the election was not just the outcome but the opportunity to cast a meaningful vote for the first time since 2008.

Economic Challenges Intensify

The International Crisis Group identified economic stability as the government’s top priority. Rising fuel prices and disrupted trade due to the Iran conflict could weaken foreign reserves, slow GDP growth, and increase inflation.

The report warns that these pressures will further strain an economy already weakened by past mismanagement. It also stresses the need for administrative reforms, particularly in tackling corruption and strengthening the rule of law, including building a more professional and effective police force.

Awami League’s Future Uncertain

One of the most complex political issues, the report says, is the future of the Awami League. The party’s activities have been suspended pending verdicts in cases against its top নেতাদের in the International Crimes Tribunal.

While extending the ban may be tempting for the BNP, given its rivalry with the Awami League, the report warns that permanently excluding a party with a large support base could increase the risk of instability and violence.

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The report also notes that the Awami League’s return to politics would be difficult as long as Sheikh Hasina remains its leader, due to strong public anger and her conviction by the tribunal. Leadership change could make reinstatement easier, though not sufficient without accountability for past actions.

Legal and Governance Concerns

The report criticized the filing of numerous allegedly baseless cases against Awami League members and supporters after the fall of the previous government. Many have been detained for extended periods without trial, in some cases exceeding 18 months.

It recommended withdrawing cases lacking sufficient evidence and granting bail to those without prior criminal records, while ensuring the justice system is not used for political retaliation.

Foreign Relations and Security Risks

Rebuilding strained relations with India should be a priority, alongside maintaining balance with key partners such as China and the United States.

The report also highlights ongoing law-and-order challenges. Weak policing, political unrest, and repeated street protests have undermined public confidence. It warns that such instability could persist for years, as seen in other post-authoritarian transitions.

Additionally, the government must remain alert to the risk of violent extremism, which could grow amid political instability and weak law enforcement. Online extremist rhetoric is already increasing, while the Rohingya crisis remains a potential flashpoint.

Call for Urgent Action

The International Crisis Group concluded that the government must act quickly to implement reforms and demonstrate a break from past practices.

“Maintaining public support will depend on restoring economic growth, improving governance, and managing a complex political and international landscape,” the report said.