New survey shows BNP, Jamaat in stiff election contest

A new opinion poll shows that Jamaat-e-Islami has significantly reduced its gap with BNP to only 1.1% about two months ahead of the 12 February elections, setting the stage for a tight race.

BNP has a 34.7% voter base, Jamaat has 33.6%, NCP has 7.1%, Islami Andolon Bangladesh has 3.1% and others have 4.5%, according to the 21 November-20 December survey.

Projection BD, International Institute of Law and Diplomacy (IILD), Jagoron Foundation, and Narrative jointly conducted the survey on 22,174 voters in 295 constituencies across all the 64 districts of the country.

IILD Executive Director Shafiul Alam Shahin presented the survey findings at a press conference held at the National Press Club on Monday.

Interestingly, as many as 17 voters remain undecided, and could potentially decide the election result, the survey shows. A sub-group of over 30% undecided voters claimed they cannot trust any political party at the moment, while another sub-group of 38.6% voters declined to give any response.

Voter turnout is expected to be 86.3%. After redistributing or accounting for undecided voters, the BNP’s support reaches 43.2%, compared to 40.8% for Jamaat-e-Islami.

Among BNP supporters, over 72% claimed they have faith in the party’s past experience in running the country as well as its “administrative base.” The majority of Jamaat supporters cite the party’s low corruption record for backing it.

Less than 40% of NCP supporters, are willing to vote for the new generation party for its young leaders’ instrumental role in the 2024 July-August anti-fascist uprising.