Africa’s gas ascent and the lesson for Dhaka

Africa is fast emerging as the next frontier of global gas growth, and energy planners elsewhere would be unwise to ignore it. Gas supplies about a quarter of the world's primary energy but only 17% of consumption in sub-Saharan Africa, leaving vast room for expansion. Nigeria's "Decade of Gas" programme is lifting LNG capacity towards 30 million tonnes a year from 2027. Mozambique could approach 80 million tonnes by 2034. Côte d'Ivoire's floating regasification arrangement offers a workable template for gas-to-power development.
The timing matters. With about 250 million tonnes a year of LNG capacity under construction worldwide, led by the United States, a supply surplus is expected from 2029 for two to three years. Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has also taught buyers to value cargoes that avoid chokepoints. Caution is still warranted. Mozambique's projects have suffered force majeure delays, Tanzania’s flagship scheme awaits a host government agreement, and financing and infrastructure gaps remain formidable. Africa's gas will arrive unevenly, not overnight.
For Bangladesh, the implications are sobering and promising in equal measure. This year's Gulf crisis exposed the fragility of import dependence. QatarEnergy halved its scheduled 2026 deliveries, and Dhaka had bought 38 spot cargoes by the end of July at far higher cost. The LNG bill for 2025-26 reached Tk59,700 crore. Meanwhile, output from the country’s 22 domestic fields is projected to fall to about 850 million cubic feet a day by the end of 2028. A looser global market from 2029 will strengthen buyers' bargaining power, but only for those with the terminals, contracts and creditworthiness to exploit it.
Authorities should therefore act on three fronts. Firstly, they should diversify LNG sourcing beyond the Gulf through long-term agreements with West African, Mozambican and American suppliers. Additional floating terminals and storage are also needed, so that a single terminal fire cannot cut supply by nearly half, as happened in July. Prompt payment and transparent pricing will help retain supplier confidence. Secondly, the offshore bidding round, which closes on 30 November, and the pledge of 150 new wells by 2030-31 must be pursued with discipline, with BAPEX properly resourced. Thirdly, renewables must move from rhetoric to budgets: they receive a mere 5 per cent of the power and energy allocation. Solar expansion, Rooppur, regional power trade and industrial efficiency must complement gas. Energy security cannot be imported; it has to be built.